As 2024 draws to a close, the global precious metals market has once again become the focal point, with gold prices steadily rising, the platinum market experiencing supply-demand imbalances, and silver revealing unprecedented investment opportunities. What are the driving forces behind these changes? What new opportunities and challenges do they signal? Looking ahead to 2025, how will the price trends of precious metals evolve?
Gold Prices Could Reach New Heights in 2025
The author believes that the primary factors influencing international gold prices remain “U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy,” “geopolitical tensions,” and “risk aversion sentiment,” which continue to top the list. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy has held the number one spot for three consecutive years. With the possibility of a new policy under a second-term Trump administration and the Fed opening the interest rate cut window, long-term support for the gold bull market is expected. At the same time, the intensification of geopolitical tensions will further drive risk aversion sentiment, making it a key factor in pushing gold prices higher. The People's Bank of China resumed its gold purchases after a six-month hiatus, and central banks of various economies have shown strong interest in continuing to add gold to their reserve portfolios. This further confirms the important role of gold in central banks' risk management and foreign exchange reserve diversification strategies.
Platinum Market Outlook for 2025
In 2024, the global platinum market experienced a shortfall of approximately 21 tons, and this trend is expected to continue in 2025, with the shortfall reduced to about 17 tons. South Africa's platinum production has been declining over the past five years, and it is expected to face difficulties in achieving positive growth in the short term. Meanwhile, the global platinum recycling market, which stagnated in 2024, is expected to grow by approximately 12% in 2025. Furthermore, the demand for platinum in the automotive industry has shown a steady upward trend, and the jewelry market, after years of stagnation, is showing signs of stability and is expected to grow next year.
China holds a dominant position in several platinum group metal consumption industries, particularly in the automotive, glass, and petroleum refining sectors. With the development of the hydrogen fuel cell industry, China's production capacity is leading the world, indicating that platinum’s importance in the Chinese market will continue to grow, which is overall beneficial for platinum price trends. The development of China's platinum investment market, especially innovations in large-weight platinum bars for investment, has provided investors with more options. Given the listing of platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, it may drive improvements in market liquidity and spot investment demand, making platinum an investment opportunity worth paying attention to.
Trump's Return to the White House and the Gold Market
With Donald Trump's return to the White House, the uncertainty surrounding his domestic and foreign policies introduces new variables to the gold market. The outlook for the gold market in 2025 will be influenced by global economic changes, monetary policies, geopolitical risks, and cross-market capital flows. In the first half of the year, international gold prices may fluctuate between 2,600 and 3,200 per ounce. If a major unexpected event occurs, gold prices could reach new historical highs or break through the $3,200 per ounce mark. The author advises investors to closely monitor these factors in order to seize opportunities in the gold market.
The author’s forecast is a subjective opinion on the market and should not be considered as investment advice for investors.
